Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 90.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 90.5 (-105) after it opened @ 89.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 24.9 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 86.0% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has run for a lot fewer yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards
105
Rushing Yards
