Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Raiders vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to earn 18.6 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has received 78.2% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has generated 84.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (96th percentile).
- Dameon Pierce has been among the leading running backs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 4.17 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
