Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
- Austin Ekeler has picked up 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (77th percentile).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in the NFL (175 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
