Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cardinals vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 16.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 57.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 4.81 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints will be rolling out backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Alvin Kamara has been among the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 2.55 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
