Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- Aaron Jones has earned 49.1% of his team’s run game usage since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- As it relates to run support (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year.
- Aaron Jones has generated 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (91st percentile).
- With an impressive record of 5.07 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), Aaron Jones has been as one of the leading pure rushers in the league since the start of last season.
- Opposing offenses have run for the most adjusted yards in football (177 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
Cons
- At the present time, the 10th-least run-centric team in the NFL (37.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Green Bay Packers.
- The model projects the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 52.2 per game on average).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
