Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (+104) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
Aaron Jones has earned 46.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most yards in the league (132 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards