Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cardinals vs. Saints
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 68.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential target this season (86.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (73.2%).
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 7.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- Zach Ertz’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 5.83 yards-per-target compared to a 6.84 mark last season.
- Zach Ertz has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 21st percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) versus TEs this year.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (54.9%) versus tight ends this year (54.9%).
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 4.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
