Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 10.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 31.4% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill has totaled a lot more receiving yards per game (103.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 57.0 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards
94
Receiving Yards
