Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Lockett from EV Insight

Tyler LockettReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-151/+110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-151) after it opened @ 54.5 (-119).

Pros

Right now, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (62.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
The model projects Tyler Lockett to total 8.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.
Tyler Lockett has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 23.1% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
This year, the poor Cardinals defense has yielded a whopping 186.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see only 127.1 total plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
Tyler Lockett has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Tyler Lockett’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 75.8% to 69.3%.
Tyler Lockett’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, notching just 7.83 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.55 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards