Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Rams vs. Steelers
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- As far as a defense’s effect on tempo, the Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed opposing teams to play 10th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) this year at 27.01 seconds per snap.
- Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
- Tyler Higbee has been less involved as a potential target this season (87.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (69.7%).
- Tyler Higbee profiles as one of the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an exceptional 36.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Rams grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.3%) to TEs this year (60.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
