Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-114) after it opened @ 73.5 (-113).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
In this contest, Travis Kelce is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 9.6 targets.
Travis Kelce has posted a whopping 64.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Travis Kelce has gone out for fewer passes this year (68.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.1%).
Travis Kelce’s 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a an impressive regression in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 80.0 rate.
Travis Kelce’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging just 7.69 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 mark last season.
Travis Kelce’s skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, accumulating a mere 4.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.46 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards