Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-117) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

T.J. Hockenson’s 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 57.0%.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 35.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards