Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+100) after it opened @ 49.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to earn 7.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- Robert Woods has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
- Robert Woods’s possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 66.1% to 69.1%.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- Robert Woods has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
