Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to total 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.3 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been much less involved in his team’s passing attack this year (12.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (68.3%) to tight ends this year (68.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
