Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-110).

Pros

In this contest, Mike Evans is predicted by the model to rank in the 85th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Mike Evans has been more prominently utilized in his team’s passing game.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Mike Evans checks in as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 65.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.
Mike Evans’s 6.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a a substantial progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 2.6% rate.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards