Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this contest, Mike Evans is predicted by the model to rank in the 85th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Mike Evans has been more prominently utilized in his team’s passing game.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
- Mike Evans checks in as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 65.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.
- Mike Evans’s 6.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a a substantial progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 2.6% rate.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
