Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael MayerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bears vs. Raiders
Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-145) after it opened @ 20.5 (-121).
Pros
- The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- The model projects Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack in this week’s contest (11.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).
- The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Michael Mayer checks in as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a terrific 9.78 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 96th percentile.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.0 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.2 per game on average).
- The Bears pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
