Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).

Pros

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Green Bay Packers.
In this contest, Luke Musgrave is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 86th percentile among tight ends with 5.3 targets.
With an impressive 14.9% Target Share (83rd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football.
Luke Musgrave comes in as one of the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 31.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (71.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

The model projects the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (just 52.2 per game on average).

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards