NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/21)
Alex Christenson
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 16.5 (-110) after it opened @ 17.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
- Kylen Granson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this year (9.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.1%).
- Kylen Granson has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (12.0).
- The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (84.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
