Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- With regard to a defense’s influence on tempo, at 27.70 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 10th-fastest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to earn 5.8 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has notched a colossal 71.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been incorporated much less in his offense’s air attack.
- Kyle Pitts’s 2.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a a substantial reduction in his efficiency in space over last year’s 6.6% figure.
- This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has surrendered a mere 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
- The Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus TEs this year, giving up 4.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
