Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
With regard to a defense’s influence on tempo, at 27.70 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 10th-fastest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to earn 5.8 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has notched a colossal 71.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been incorporated much less in his offense’s air attack.
Kyle Pitts’s 2.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a a substantial reduction in his efficiency in space over last year’s 6.6% figure.
This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has surrendered a mere 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
The Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus TEs this year, giving up 4.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards