Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-122/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-122) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling out backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson has run fewer routes this season (68.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Juwan Johnson’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.2% to 60.1%.
Juwan Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has declined this year, totaling a mere 7.17 yards-per-target vs a 9.21 rate last year.
Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest TEs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 13th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards