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Chris Meaney
Ian ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 10.5 (-110) after it opened @ 11.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (81.6%) to tight ends this year (81.6%).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.3 plays per game.
- Ian Thomas has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a measly 63.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line has given their QB just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
