Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 92.1% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
The predictive model expects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 8.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
As it relates to air yards, Diontae Johnson grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 89.0 per game.

Cons

The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Diontae Johnson is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, completing just 61.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile among wideouts
Diontae Johnson comes in as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL, averaging just 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile when it comes to wideouts
This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded a measly 51.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards