Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 8.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 27.1% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Deebo Samuel has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
- Deebo Samuel’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 59.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
