NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (67.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills.
- Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
- Dawson Knox has posted a staggering 28.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
- This year, the shaky Patriots defense has yielded a massive 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-worst in the league.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.75 seconds per snap.
- Dawson Knox has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
- Dawson Knox’s 59.7% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a a remarkable diminishment in his receiving skills over last year’s 74.5% mark.
- Dawson Knox’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, totaling just 4.19 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.95 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
