Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Daniel Bellinger from EV Insight

Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards

Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.91 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 8.09 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.3%) to TEs this year (65.3%).
The New York Giants offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards