Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Jaguars vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.91 seconds per snap.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 8.09 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.3%) to TEs this year (65.3%).
- The New York Giants offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
