MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-137) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 8.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
- Courtland Sutton has posted many more receiving yards per game (71.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- The New York Jets defense has given up the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) to WRs this year.
- The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
