Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-137) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to notch 8.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has posted many more receiving yards per game (71.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The New York Jets defense has given up the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) to WRs this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards