Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bears vs. Raiders
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.
- In this game, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets.
- Cole Kmet has put up a staggering 34.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
- Cole Kmet’s possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 74.3% to 77.8%.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 51.1% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 120.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Raiders, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.2 per game) this year.
- Cole Kmet has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (72.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (84.0%).
- When it comes to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
