Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-118).

Pros

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Christian Kirk is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.7 targets.

Cons

Christian Kirk’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a measly 8.40 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.53 rate last season.
This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has given up a meager 57.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a paltry 7.1 yards.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards