NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-118).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
- The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this contest, Christian Kirk is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.7 targets.
Cons
- Christian Kirk’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a measly 8.40 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.53 rate last season.
- This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has given up a meager 57.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL.
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a paltry 7.1 yards.
- The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
