Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-117/-112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-117) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this season (95.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Cons

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Christian Kirk has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 60.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards