Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (+100) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to garner 8.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Chris Godwin has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin’s 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 47.5.
Chris Godwin has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards