NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-115) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 71.2%.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, notching a measly 7.02 yards-per-target vs a 8.33 figure last year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.2%) versus wideouts this year (60.2%).
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, conceding 7.11 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
