WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Commanders vs. Packers
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-125) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
- Allen Lazard has been less involved as a potential target this year (94.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (77.3%).
- Allen Lazard has notched many more air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
- Allen Lazard has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
Cons
- The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
- Allen Lazard’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.9% to 63.3%.
- The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
