Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence’s throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 65.2%.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 202.0 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league versus the New York Giants defense this year (65.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
217
Passing Yards