Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Jaguars vs. Giants
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence’s throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 58.9% to 65.2%.
- The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 202.0 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league versus the New York Giants defense this year (65.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
217
Passing Yards
217
Passing Yards
