Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-125) after it opened @ 268.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
- Tom Brady has been among the top passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 282.0 yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football this year when it comes to pass rush.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
299
Passing Yards
299
Passing Yards
