Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Taylor Heinicke from EV Insight

Taylor HeinickePassing Yards

Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 218.5 (-142) after it opened @ 224.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year (77.0%).
The Green Bay Packers defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 33.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 189.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards