Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-110) after it opened @ 230.5 (-110).

Pros

The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Commanders to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Sam Howell has attempted 37.8 throws per game this year, ranking in the 87th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
The Washington offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With an outstanding tally of 250.0 adjusted passing yards per game (79th percentile), Sam Howell has been as one of the best QBs in football this year.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
This year, the daunting New York Giants defense has surrendered a feeble 213.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 9th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards