Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 284.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 284.5 (-133) after it opened @ 277.5 (-117).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is expected by our trusted projection set to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.2.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
This year, the anemic Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a whopping 314.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the most in the NFL.

Cons

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Patrick Mahomes’s 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a a noteable diminishment in his throwing talent over last season’s 325.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes’s throwing effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 7.21 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
283
Passing Yards