Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 195.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 195.5 (-120) after it opened @ 215.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Mac Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a terrific 66.5% Completion%, checking in at the 79th percentile.
Mac Jones has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.96 yards-per-target while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Cons

The Patriots are an enormous 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards