Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray from EV Insight

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 244.5 (-133) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kyler Murray has attempted 44.7 throws per game this year, checking in at the 97th percentile among quarterbacks.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

Kyler Murray’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.0% to 63.2%.
Kyler Murray’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 5.94 yards-per-target vs a 7.61 rate last season.
Opposing teams have passed for the 10th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (64.8%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.32 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards