Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cardinals are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- This year, the porous Seattle Seahawks defense has been torched for a staggering 288.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst in football.
- As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Seattle’s unit has been lousy this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football.
Cons
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.7% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Joshua Dobbs profiles as one of the least accurate QBs in the league this year with a 62.0% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
198
Passing Yards
198
Passing Yards
