Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bengals vs. Falcons
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-120) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Joe Burrow has passed for quite a few more yards per game (267.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
- Joe Burrow has been among the best precision passers in the league this year with a stellar 68.4% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 6th-most yards in the league (282.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 7.03 yards-per-target vs a 8.12 figure last year.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards
275
Passing Yards
