Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-114) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for significantly more yards per game (232.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.85 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 63.2%.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
