Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-115) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Jared Goff’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.2% to 60.0%.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 198.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (65.4%).
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.12 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards
243
Passing Yards
