Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 261.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-110).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
The most plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).
Jalen Hurts has attempted 37.7 passes per game this year, checking in at the 84th percentile when it comes to QBs.
The Philadelphia offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a staggering 254.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 10th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 55.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami’s group of safeties has been great this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards