Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- With regard to a defense’s influence on tempo, at 27.70 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 10th-fastest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-most in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 4th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- In this week’s contest, Desmond Ridder is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.1.
- This year, the tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a meager 6.9 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
203
Passing Yards
203
Passing Yards
