Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 238.5 (-137) after it opened @ 239.5 (-117).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Saints as the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Saints have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Cons
- The New Orleans O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
- Derek Carr’s 212.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a a noteable diminishment in his passing skills over last season’s 237.0 rate.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s CB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards
288
Passing Yards
