WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Brett RypienPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Brett Rypien’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 187.5 (-110) after it opened @ 196.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has given their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in football versus the New York Jets defense this year (66.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
