Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brett Rypien from EV Insight

Brett RypienPassing Yards

Right now, Brett Rypien’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 187.5 (-110) after it opened @ 196.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has given their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in football versus the New York Jets defense this year (66.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards