Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 228.5 (-110).
Pros
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
- Baker Mayfield has thrown for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (209.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
