Week 7 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 228.5 (-110).

Pros

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Baker Mayfield has thrown for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (209.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards