Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. 49ers
Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-103) after it opened @ 45.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
- The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have run for the least yards in football (just 68 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
