Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-145) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 19.7 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this week (67.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.9% in games he has played).
- The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Cons
- The New England Patriots will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
